Guardian Poll November 2012
Con 32% (-1)
Lab 40% (-1)
LD 13% (-1)
UKIP 7%
Oth 8% (net 15%, +3)

The latest Guardian/ICM poll reveals an 8-point lead, which is the same as last month, although all three of the main parties have slipped by 1-point each. The big risers are 'others' with UKIP scoring 7%. This is a record score for the party from ICM, coming as it does just after good showings for its candidates in bye-elections. It is 2010 Conservative voters who are much more likely to have switched to UKIP than supporters of other parties (8% of 2010 Tories say they're now for UKIP).

More generally, others in total have only reached 15% once before, in June 09, which suggests a level of disillusionment with the major parties is gaining ground.

The best PM question is also quite interesting. David Cameron (33%) is still thought to be the best Prime Minister for Britain, but he has fallen from 38% in Jan 11. That said, Tory supporters are much more likely to stand by their man than Labour supporters are for Ed Miliband, or indeed LDs for Nick Clegg (85% vs 67% vs 37%).

Ed Miliband has to common consent upped his game, but the public have not noticed. His standing on best pm is 25%, exactly as it was only a few months into his leadership. Clegg has dropped 5-points to only 7%. The big 'winner' is "none of them", up from 14% to 21% now.

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Martin Boon

020 7845 8344

martin.boon@icmresearch.com