The first ever instalment of the ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index reveals that the public do think that Labour holds a material lead over the Conservatives of 8-points, but are less inclined to think that the Liberal Democrats will do as badly as most conventional polls are saying. The prompted prediction has Labour on 39% , with the Conservatives trailing on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are predicted to get 16% if there really were a General Election tomorrow.
The Wisdom Index differs from conventional polling in that it focuses on what people think the outcome of a General Election would be, rather than how they themselves would vote in it. The process is a very simple one, simply collecting the shares of the vote that people think each of the main parties would get, and generating a mean vote share.
This approach was also adapted to other questions: only 31% think Britain will be in the European Union for ever, while 55% think that we will always have a Monarchy. Prince Charles will inherit the throne rather than Prince William according to 58% but the people (61%) do not expect his wife, Camilla, to ever be crowned Queen.
Finally, on the verge of her Diamond Jubilee, the Queen’s subjects put her front and centre in the list of greatest ever Monarchs. One in three (35%) say she is the best ever Monarch, ahead of Queen Victoria (24%) and Elizabeth I (15%). Henry VIII and Henry V efforts go largely unrewarded.
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ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index (PDF)
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