The Guardian/ICM monthly poll is very much “as you were” in July, with the state of the parties exactly in line with June findings. Given the troubles that the coalition has endured over the month, including a continued faltering of the Chancellor’s reputation, the government abandoning reform of the House of the Lords to avoid an inevitable defeat and the G4S Olympic security debacle, the Prime Minister can probably take some comfort in his vote holding firm in the mid-thirties – only 3-points lower than his 2010 election winning level.
The full state of the parties in July is:
Conservatives 34% (nc)
Labour 39% (nc)
LD 14% (nc)
Oth 13% (nc)
Perhaps offering more polling excitement is a secondary question, re-running the state of the parties with the counter-factual scenario of Tony Blair being back in charge of the Labour Party. Mr. Blair was reported to have said that he would take on the PM job again – as unlikely as that might be – but that his experience over the last few years would make him a better PM than he was before. The public though, would be unimpressed by the prospect. Labour’s share of the vote would dip by 3-points (to 36%) if Blair were in charge, with Labour and other parties rather than the coalition reaping the benefit.
If Blair were PM, the figures would be:
Con 34%
Lab 36%
LD 15%
Oth 14%
Only one third (33%) of the public are confident that the coalition will successfully chart its course all the way through to the next General Election, scheduled for May 2015. Not even a majority of Conservative prospective voters (41%) or Liberal Democrat counterparts (42%) think so. A quarter (23%) think it will almost get there, but will fall a few months short. A similar number (23%) think the coalition will collapse sometime in 2013-14 with 7% saying that it will not see this year out – both of these more pessimistic predictions about survival are largely underpinned by Labour voters.
The last few months have been traumatic for the Tory team responsible for steering the economy back to growth, with the lead for Osborne and Cameron being steadily whittled away by Milliband and Balls. However, the rot has been stopped, with the Tory team lead on economic management increasing by 2-points this month. Overall, 40% think Cameron/Osborne are best able to manage the economy compared to 29% for Milliband and Balls.
Finally, with the Olympic Games only days away and enthusiasm building strongly, the poll finds that nearly everyone will tune in to watch at some point. A quarter (26%) plan to watch events every day, while 28% will watch at least every few days. One third (32%) will only watch the opening ceremony or big finals while 13% will avoid any exposure.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1004 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 20-22nd July 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Guardian Poll July 2012 (PDF)
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